Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed more than 10% over the past month despite persistent volatility. The asset briefly surged past $79,000 in yesterday’s session.
This marked its highest level since early February before easing slightly. At press time, BTC was trading at $78,258, up 2.54% on the day.
However, despite the strong rebound, three key market indicators are now flashing a cautionary signal.
3 Reasons Bitcoin’s 10% Monthly Surge Could Be Hitting a Wall
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said the rally is fueled by activity in perpetual futures. He added that spot demand continues to contract, although at a slower pace.
Bitcoin’s Rally Driven By Perp Demand. Source: X/Julio Moreno
Glassnode data shows the 24-hour simple moving average of Short-Term Holder Realized Profit has climbed to $4.4 million per hour. That figure is nearly three times the $1.5 million threshold that has marked every local top year-to-date.
“In the absence of a meaningful demand catalyst capable of absorbing this wave of profit realization and sustaining momentum above the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, a pullback from current levels would be entirely consistent with the pattern this report has outlined. The signals, taken together, point toward caution rather than conviction at this juncture,” the report noted.
With the continuation of this rebound, now underway for several weeks, Bitcoin has just reclaimed the cost basis of the on-chain traders cohort, located around ~$74,300.
—💡This cohort includes all BTC held for between 1 month and 3 months, a short enough period to classify… pic.twitter.com/lGr39npbuI
Lastly, Glassnode stated that BTC broke above the True Market Mean at $78,100, a “development that carries meaningful cyclical significance,” as per the firm. However, the next upside target is at $80,500, the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis.
Investors who accumulated between $60,000 and $70,000 are now approaching profits. According to Glassnode, this cohort has a strong incentive to exit positions. Furthermore, a recovery toward $80,000 would push more than 54% of recent buyers back into profit.
“This dynamic raises the probability of a local top formation in the near term, warranting caution despite the constructive breakout above the True Market Mean,” Glassnode added.
Thus, the warning signals are piling up. Whether fresh demand can absorb the distribution pressure will determine if the rebound extends or reverses.
