A veteran trader who has a history of nailing Bitcoin’s cycles says a key indicator is signaling BTC has bottomed.
Dave the Wave tells his 188,700 followers on X that Bitcoin’s moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator seems to be forming a similar 2022 pattern that led to a massive breakout.
The MACD is a technical indicator that tracks the convergence and divergence of moving averages to gauge an asset’s momentum and trend direction while pinpointing potential reversal areas.
“Though I usually focus more on the weekly MACD, I find this chart of interest. To find the daily MACD so low as recently, we have to go all the way back to the major cyclical correction of 2022. This suggests that we are likewise repeating that pattern. Also of interest is the three swings lower in the course of that correction, something we see mirrored here in 2026, and more concisely in a more mature market. If the pattern continues to play out, the bottom is in.”
Source: Dave the Wave/X
The analyst also shares Bitcoin’s monthly chart and predicts BTC’s price volatility will continue to decrease.
“On the weekly chart, we see the same pattern in a more subdued manner, once again signaling a maturing more technical market in my opinion. The MACD here does not reach as low due to reducing macro volatility in price, or, in other words, increasing price stability. Keep in mind that along the lines of the LGC model [Logarithmic Growth Curve], a process of price discovery is unfolding. In this scenario, overall price increase while remaining volatile to both sides, will itself increasingly plateau as BTC [an alternative currency/ digital gold] is capitalized by the market. This eventual price discovery/ capitalization is also why the MACD on higher time frames should not swing as high or low. The chart [below] is so far confirming the theory/ prediction. The theory has performed.”
Source: Dave the Wave/X
Bitcoin is trading for $65,826 at time of writing, flat on the day.
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