Standard Chartered says the Bitcoin (BTC) bottom is in at $59,000, while Galaxy Research argues the true low remains months away. However, both firms now reject the brutal 80% collapse that closed every previous market cycle.
Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered made his call in a Friday client note. Meanwhile, Galaxy’s Alex Thorn released a data-heavy cycle study this week arguing for patience.
Bitcoin price chart showing the June drop to $59,000 and recovery above $63,000, alt text “Bitcoin bottom debate”, Source: BeInCrypto]
Standard Chartered Calls the Bitcoin Bottom at $59,000
Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital asset research, said the slide to $59,000 marked this cycle’s low. That level sits 53% below October’s $126,000 all-time high.
“I think we have now seen the low in crypto asset prices for the cycle. That would be USD59k for BTC (53% down from USD126k high)… Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring,” Kendrick wrote in the note to clients.
Two catalysts support his view. President Trump canceled planned strikes on Iran on Thursday and said a deal could be signed within days, before the June 15-17 G7 summit in Evian.
SpaceX’s record $75 billion listing, the largest in history, is the second. Kendrick argued some ETF holders sold fund shares to free up cash for Friday’s Nasdaq debut.
Indeed, US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost roughly $4.3 billion across the record ETF outflow streak of 13 straight sessions.
Notably, the $59,000 turn sits above Kendrick’s own February forecast of a capitulation near $50,000, which he framed as a buy level for a $100,000 year-end target.
Thorn, Galaxy’s head of firmwide research, reached the opposite conclusion. He said the four-year cycle is compressing, and that compression changes where the floor sits.
BITCOIN MAY NOT HAVE BOTTOMED YET HERE’S WHERE THE DATA DAYS IT COULD
we analyzed every cycle top and bottom in bitcoin’s history. the 4-year cycle is still real, but it’s compressing. and that compression changes where the floor sits pic.twitter.com/EA07kBZtEd
Galaxy anchored its thesis to the Bitcoin halvings that cut new supply every four years. It found that only four of the 13 signals that marked every prior bottom have triggered.
Moreover, the current 51% decline remains far milder than the 77% to 85% drops that ended past cycles.
Timing matters too. Past bottoms arrived 12 to 13 months after each top, and this cycle sits just eight months past its October peak.
Consequently, Galaxy’s base case puts the floor between $40,000 and $46,000, arriving by late 2026. That timing echoes separate calls for a bottom in October 2026.
“A calmer top has raised the floor, but it has not removed it,” read an excerpt in the Galaxy report.
The report also warns the floor itself can fall if a real panic emerges.
Where the Two Forecasts Meet
Despite the disagreement, both firms say the four-year cycle remains intact, just gentler. Galaxy’s data shows each bear market has grown shallower, shrinking from 85% to 84% to 77% across three cycles.
Market structure explains why.
Galaxy notes the aggregate cost basis of holders sits at 43.7% of the prior peak, versus roughly a third in earlier cycles.
Therefore, a classic capitulation would end at a much higher dollar price today.
ETF demand and corporate treasuries support that elevated cost basis. In contrast, retail-driven cycles produced the deep washouts of 2015, 2018, and 2022.
The coming days offer a quick test. Standard Chartered wants Friday ETF inflows, lower oil prices, and proof that Strategy’s 32 BTC sale was a one-off.
Those signals may show which forecast cracks first.
![Bitcoin price chart showing the June drop to $59,000 and recovery above $63,000, alt text "bitcoin bottom debate", Source: BeInCrypto]](https://assets.beincrypto.com/img/2MnkIbGMR9DRhLi4Iz6WFBgELYY=/smart/bdab37675b024c9b921b7273bff4cb33)
