Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode say a bitcoin bottom may be taking shape. Sentiment has flipped from Fear to Optimism, and three-quarters of surveyed investors now call BTC undervalued.
The Q2 2026 Charting Crypto report still flags Middle East tensions and macro shocks as wild cards. Veteran analysts now split on whether the floor holds or breaks.
Sentiment Flips, On-Chain Signals Turn
Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode pair survey data with on-chain reads in the new report. They argue many crypto assets could form a near-term bottom and recover later in Q2.
The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss reading for Bitcoin jumped out of the Fear band. It is back in Optimism as April closes. Roughly 75% of institutions and 71% of non-institutions now tag BTC as undervalued.
Ether shows a similar shift. Short-term supply held under three months dropped 38% in Q1. Long-term supply held over a year rose 1%. Speculators have been flushed and conviction holders are stacking.
Willy Woo and Ivan on Tech Split on Confirmation
On-chain veteran Willy Woo says the bottom is being tested. He pegs the recent investor cost basis near $79,000, giving Bitcoin only a 30% shot at clearing it on this attempt.
“BTC is currently attempting a bottom, but all the pieces are not yet in place, the next 3-6 weeks will be telling,” said Willy Woo.
According to the analyst, holding above $65,000 is the line that turns this attempt into something structural.
Meanwhile, crypto trader Ivan Liljeqvist, known online as Ivan on Tech, is far less convinced. He warns that the Bitcoin price:
Has not broken its bull market support band
Has not printed a higher high
Has not delivered any decisive bullish candle.
Liljeqvist also flags the seasonal pattern of May weakness in bear cycles, warning against complacency.
“Bitcoin dumps hard each May in bear markets…do not be complacent here,” he stated.
This seasonal pattern supports cautious views amid current corrective phase. However, the historical tendency is not a strict rule as some Mays delivered gains even in volatile times.
“Sell in May” isn’t gospel, but it’s not a joke either. May has delivered: +50% mega pumps (2017, 2019) -35% bloodbaths (2021) One thing’s clear: volatility is real. Don’t get reckless. Don’t overplay. May rewards snipers, not maxed-out degens,” a DeFi researcher observed.
Traders should manage risk carefully watch key support levels and avoid overconfidence while monitoring broader market signals this month.
Macro Wild Cards Stalk the Bitcoin Bottom
Coinbase pins much of the uncertainty on macro events and the Middle East conflict. The firm calls positioning into short-term trades extremely tough.
Even so, it reads the macro setup as tilting positive enough to support a near-term floor.
The next three to six weeks will be decisive. Traders will watch the $65,000 floor and the $79,000 cost basis. Any fresh shock from the Middle East or central banks could blow the setup apart.
