Instead of a resurgence and a breath of fresh air for the bulls, the primary cryptocurrency’s condition has only worsened, with a 6% price drop over the past week.
The bearish environment has prompted several analysts to issue pessimistic forecasts, with some envisioning declines to around $50K.
How Much Lower?
Last week, BTC briefly plummeted to around $58,000, thus reaching its lowest level since September 2024. In the following days, the bulls reclaimed some lost ground, and the cryptocurrency is currently hovering around $60,000.
According to X user Chiefy, another short-term pullback might be on the horizon. The analyst claimed that BTC has historically bottomed out about 427 days after each cycle’s all-time high, suggesting a plunge to $51,000 may follow next.
AlΞx Wacy also weighed in, basing their thesis on the asset’s past performance. That said, the X user argued that the cryptocurrency will either start a two-year bull run or bleed for an additional six months.
Some prominent figures, including the American businessman and media personality Dave Portnoy, recently floated the idea that BTC may collapse to zero. His post drew heavy criticism from many Bitcoin proponents, who opined that such a scenario is impossible, while others suggested that comments like this often appear when the market is nearing a cycle bottom.
BTC’s halving, which occurs roughly every four years, is another key reference point analysts use to estimate market tops and floors. Looking at previous cycles, the asset has shown remarkably consistent timing between major lows and highs, and if history repeats itself, the bottom may arrive sometime between October 4 and October 17, 2026.
Of course, this is not guaranteed and would depend on numerous factors, including ETF flows. Lately, outflows from these investment vehicles have far exceeded inflows, reflecting waning investor enthusiasm and setting the stage for a further correction in the near future.
The Bullish Scenario
Despite pessimistic views from numerous analysts and the crypto market’s depressed state, BTC may still be on the verge of a short-term resurgence.
First, we’ll take a look at the popular Fear & Greed index, which has been in “extreme fear” territory for quite some time. This reflects the prevailing panic among investors and, at first glance, sounds like bad news for the cryptocurrency. However, such conditions have historically mapped the cycle bottoms and have often been followed by major rebounds.
BTC Fear & Greed, Source: alternative.me
Next on the list is BTC’s Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has been hovering around 30 for the last few days. Such ratios suggest that the asset is oversold and due for a potential rally, while levels above 70 are seen as a warning of an incoming pullback.
BTC RSI, Source: CryptoWaves
Last but not least, one should keep in mind that July has historically been a strong month for BTC, with the price finishing in red territory only 4 out of 13 times.
