Bitcoin (BTC) demand has contracted to a level last seen only three times since 2019, according to CryptoQuant data. The 30-day growth of combined spot and perpetual futures demand has fallen toward minus 650,000 BTC.
A separate metric from Capriole Investments paints a similar picture. Apparent Demand sits near the bottom of its four-year range while BTC trades near $62,800.
CryptoQuant Sees Rare Bitcoin Demand Contraction
Only two comparable readings exist on the chart. They appeared before the COVID crash in early 2020 and during the 2022 bear market.
The structure of the decline matters as much as its depth. Spot demand and perpetual futures demand are shrinking at the same time. The weakness, therefore, extends beyond leveraged speculation, a dynamic flagged in an earlier CryptoQuant warning on demand imbalances.
In a QuickTake post, CryptoQuant analyst MoneroDV_ argued that the reading marks the start of an unstable phase rather than a finished correction. He wrote on CryptoQuant:
“The most probable path is an initial expansion in volatility, followed by a period of price “anesthesia”: weak momentum, compressed activity and prolonged sideways action. That phase may be psychologically more damaging than the sell-off itself.”
History adds an important nuance. The deeper minus-650,000 BTC zone has marked the beginning of an unstable phase, not a final low. Recoveries toward the higher support zone aligned more closely with the March 2020 and late 2022 bottoms. A similar recovery would offer the first sign of the signal flipping.
Capriole Data Confirms the Weakness but Offers a Caveat
Charles Edwards, CEO of Capriole Investments, highlighted a second bearish signal this week. Apparent Demand measures whether new buying absorbs fresh coin issuance and long-dormant supply returning to circulation.
The metric currently shows a minus 8,761 BTC balance. That value sits in the bottom 2.6% of its four-year range. Meanwhile, the 30-day trend has remained persistently negative, suggesting weak conditions over the next 7 to 30 days. Edwards wrote on X:
“Yikes. Bitcoin rarely does much positive when Apparent Demand is down.”
Still, the indicator carries a caveat that complicates the bearish case. Capriole’s own analysis notes that the metric’s direct predictive statistics are weak, with negligible forward correlation.
The reading works as a secondary bearish input rather than a dominant price driver. That distinction separates it from the sharper CryptoQuant signal driving the current bear market debate.
BTC Price Prediction Hinges on the $59,000 Support
BTC traded near $62,833 at press time, up 2.7% over 24 hours, according to market data. The price remains nearly 50% below its cycle high above $120,000, set in late 2025.
Persistent spot Bitcoin ETF outflows have removed a key source of structural buying through May and June. With demand growth deeply negative, fewer marginal buyers stand ready if selling resumes.
The June low near $59,000 now acts as the key support, roughly 6% below current levels. A decisive break could expose the realized price near $53,600, about 15% below spot. Earlier research identified that area as a historical floor.
In contrast, a daily close above $66,000 would weaken the bearish thesis and suggest demand is returning. A reversal in ETF flows remains the most likely catalyst for such a recovery.
Until then, both datasets point in the same direction. BTC either defends $59,000 through the anesthesia phase or revisits levels last seen at the cycle’s start.
