Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $60,000 after a 5% daily drop, leaving it about 50% below its record high. Three widely shared charts argue that the four-year cycle is intact and that the deeper cycle bottom still lies ahead.
The setup echoes recent BeInCrypto analysis, placing the cycle low in the fourth quarter of 2026. The new charts put a rough date and a price on that thesis.
Bitcoin’s Halving Clock Points to Day 900
The first chart, from analyst Jesse Olson, scales all four cycles since 2012 to the 2024 halving. Every prior cycle bottomed near day 900 after its halving.
The current cycle reached day 775 this week. That leaves about 125 days, or roughly four months, before the historical bottom window opens.
An orange band on the chart marks the projected low in the $40,000s. The black 2024 line has already rolled over, mirroring the post-top declines of 2012, 2016, and 2020. A prior BeInCrypto analysis reached the same read on the halving rhythm.
The Bitcoin Spiral Shows This Time Is Not Different
The second chart plots price on a spiral. Each loop represents one four-year cycle. The angle marks the position in the cycle, while the distance from the center marks the price.
Tops cluster in one arc, bottoms in another, and halvings in a third. The 2026 and 2027 markers fall inside the same arc that has framed every previous low.
The analyst captioned the chart “This time is different,” a nod to the institutional narratives. Its self-similar shape makes the opposite case.
The third chart stacks the levels Bitcoin must reclaim. The 21-week simple moving average sits at $75,100, the short-term holder cost basis at $77,000, and the 200-day average at $78,900.
Each acted as support during the bull phase. All three now sit overhead as resistance. Price below short-term holder cost basis means recent buyers, the holders most likely to sell, are underwater.
BTC has since slid toward the 50% drawdown line near $63,000. The newsletter behind the chart framed the grind as a slow, time-based capitulation rather than one violent flush.
The charts match a recent BeInCrypto report on analyst Benjamin Cowen. He notes Bitcoin topped on day 1,162 of the cycle, within a week of the prior two peaks at day 1,059 and day 1,168.
“Bitcoin topped within one week of when it historically tops, despite the narratives for calling the four-year cycle dead.”
Cowen places his base case at low in October 2026. That date sits about 125 days out, the same window Olson’s day 900 count produces.
Where the Bull Case Could Break the Pattern
The thesis is not guaranteed. Spot ETFs, corporate treasury demand, and a sovereign reserve narrative have pulled new money into Bitcoin at a scale earlier cycles never saw.
Some analysts argue this institutional bid could stretch or flatten the cycle rather than repeat it. A weekly close back above the $78,900 average would weaken the bearish read.
For now, the burden of proof sits with the bulls. Until Bitcoin reclaims those overhead levels, the path of least resistance points lower.
Bitcoin Price Outlook
Three independent methods, a halving day count, a cyclical spiral, and price structure, point to the same place. Each suggests Bitcoin has not yet found its cycle bottom.
A drop into the $40,000s would align with the orange target band and the on-chain floor. The 50% drawdown near $63,000 is the first marker; deeper levels are open if it breaks.
The likely window centers on the fourth quarter of 2026, near October. A weekly reclaim of $79,000 would be the first real signal that the pattern has finally broken.
