2026 hasn’t been bitcoin’s year so far, with the asset posting four (out of six) months in the red. June stands out as the most painful, setting a four-year anti-record.
However, history is on BTC’s side for July, and its start has been quite promising. The question is whether the asset will be able to follow through in the following weeks.
June Bad, July Good?
Before we explore what happened in June, we must go back to the breaking point in May. In the middle of that month, BTC’s price surpassed $82,000, prompting many analysts to speculate that the asset had erased much of its yearly losses and had kickstarted the next bull run.
However, the reality was different as the rejection at that level poured more fuel into the ‘sell in May and go away’ narrative. The culmination took place in June as the cryptocurrency plummeted below $70,000 and even beneath $60,000 on a few occasions for the first time since before the US presidential elections in late 2024.
After losing roughly $25,000 in weeks, BTC finally showed some early signs of revival and regained some traction by the end of the month. However, it still finished it with a 20.5% drop, making it the worst since June four years ago.
Bitcoin Monthly Returns. Source: CoinGlass
The chart above demonstrates that July tends to be a more favorable month for BTC, as nine out of the last 13 editions have brought gains. Moreover, each July that has followed a red June has been in the green.
The Factors
The 2026 edition has started on the right foot, with BTC tapping $63,000 this weekend. However, several factors have to improve in the following weeks for the month to finally provide a well-deserved break. First, the record-setting net outflows from the spot Bitcoin ETFs have to stop, which have been halting BTC’s progress for months now.
Second, recent on-chain data showed that real demand from US (and even Korean) investors has been missing, proven by the Coinbase Premium metric. On a more macro level, a potential de-escalation (or a permanent peace deal) in the Middle East would definitely help, as would clearing up the uncertainty around the midterms in the US.
Topping this more positive side, bitcoin recently flashed a few bullish signals after it rebounded past the coveted $60,000 level, and analysts are now eyeing the next major breakout.
Rekt Capital also weighed in on BTC’s performance in July, suggesting that the cryptocurrency will look to turn the 50-Month EMA (at around $65,000) into resistance.
