President Donald Trump announced that he had cancelled planned Iran strikes and that a peace deal is close to being signed. This announcement sent Bitcoin up 3%, but one major headwind for institutional capital remains.
Bitcoin climbed from $61,100 to above $63,400 on Thursday, June 11, after Trump said a memo of understanding with Iran could be signed as early as this weekend. The move matched a broad market rally: the S&P 500 jumped 1.75%, the Nasdaq surged 2.5%, and the Dow gained over 900 points.
For BTC ETF investors sitting on the sidelines, two reasons drove the exit, and one has just cleared. The other has not.
Bitcoin ETF Outflows: 13 Sessions, $4.4 Billion
Bitcoin spot ETFs posted $4.4 billion in net outflows across the previous 13 straight sessions, the worst streak since the products launched in 2024.
Geopolitical tension from the US-Iran standoff pushed investors toward safer assets, while uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve’s June 16-17 meeting suppressed risk appetite throughout. Fidelity’s FBTC was among the funds absorbing the heaviest selling pressure.
The last month has seen predominantly outflows for BTC ETFs. Image Source: Glassnode
Bitcoin tracked the news cycle closely throughout, falling on escalation fears and recovering each time diplomatic signals appeared. Some analysts argue the selloff looks more cyclical than structural, pointing to the speed of the price recovery as evidence that the underlying bid remains intact.
Investors holding Bitcoin ETFs faced the prospect of regional escalation, supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, and a rotation into gold and bonds. Trump’s cancellation of planned strikes, and his statement that Iran agreed to much of the draft text, removed that premium from pricing.
Oil confirmed the reading, with Brent crude falling around 3% to near $90 a barrel as supply risk eased.
Bitcoin’s behavior through this episode cuts against the safe haven narrative. When Iran tensions rose, Bitcoin fell alongside equities rather than holding firm with gold. When Trump announced the deal, Bitcoin surged 3% in line with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, not against them, which could help stop the Bitcoin ETF outflows.
That is risk-on behavior, not safe haven behavior, but it also explains why institutional money could return. If Bitcoin sold off because risk rose, the same logic says capital flows back now that risk has been removed.
Altcoins moved more sharply on the news than Bitcoin itself. ETH gained 4%, Solana surged 6.8%, and Cardano climbed 6.6%.
The Fed Is the Next Test
The second driver of the outflow streak has not gone away. The Federal Reserve meets June 16-17, with market odds of a rate hold sitting at 98%. A hold is not inherently negative for Bitcoin, but uncertainty around the Fed’s forward guidance has kept institutional buyers cautious across the full 13-session stretch.
If the Fed signals a clear path toward cuts, the remaining headwind lifts. If the statement reads hawkish or ambiguous, the relief from the Iran deal could fade fast. The geopolitical overhang has cleared. June 17 tells us whether institutional flows follow.
