Bitcoin Structure Mirrors 2022 Bottom – But There’s a Big Catch

On-chain data and technical analysis provided by popular analyst Ali Martinez show that bitcoin’s current price structure is mimicking the 2022 bottoming cycle, which is both good and bad for the asset.

The negative part also comes from the behavior of whales, who have been sending BTC to exchanges en masse lately.

BTC 2026 vs 2022

The 2022 bear market was quite brutal, propelled mostly by the adverse developments within the cryptocurrency industry, including the collapses of Terra and FTX and the subsequent fallout for many linked entities. BTC plunged from the then-all-time high of almost $70,000 to under $16,000 in a year.

Martinez outlined several similarities between the price moves at the time and the cryptocurrency’s current setup. More precisely, he believes there could be another major rejection, as it happened when BTC tapped $25,000 in August/September 2022 before it was driven south to the aforementioned low.

If his chart is to mimic the 2022 scenario, bitcoin could find itself dumping below $55,000 after getting rejected at around $80,000-$82,000.

Bitcoin $BTC is showing similarities to its 2022 bottoming structure.

If this holds, we could see another push higher before a final leg down. pic.twitter.com/D1u55JxfZ0

— Ali Charts (@alicharts) May 1, 2026

This key resistance level is also reinforced by significant sell walls from whales at $79,000-$80,000, as mentioned by CW. Recall that BTC was stopped on a couple of occasions at $79,500 in the past few weeks, and each retracement pushed it south by several grand.

BTC to Exchanges

The second major catch, as hinted at above, that could hinder the asset’s progress has been the recent behaviors of large investors. Further data from Martinez revealed that more than 10,000 BTC have been sent to centralized exchanges by these market participants, worth $770 million at today’s prices, which is typically a pre-sale step.

In the meantime, another analyst, Crypto Tony, believes bitcoin’s minor rebound to $77,600 over the past 12 hours will result in another rejection. On the positive side, the cryptocurrency ended April with the most substantial gains since April 2025, surging by 11.87%, according to CoinGlass data.

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