Bitcoin surges to $76,000 despite tension rising over Iran negotiations

Bitcoin rose to $76,000 on Tuesday as tensions flared between the US and Iran ahead of a rapidly advancing ceasefire deadline.

The top cryptocurrency surged by 2% over the past 24 hours as the war of words between Washington and Tehran escalated ahead of crucial peace talks on Tuesday, ahead of the ceasefire ending on Wednesday.

Traders are now recalibrating for a longer conflict than what was initially expected, crypto trading firm QCP said in a Monday note to investors.

“Markets are beginning to price duration rather than intensity, pointing to a conflict that may be more protracted than initially assumed, but still contained within current bounds,” QCP wrote.

Indeed, Polymarket punters are also lowering the probability that the conflict ends by April 30 to 41%, down from 63% on April 17.

They give the conflict a 70% chance of ending before June 30.

It is not immediately clear why Bitcoin has rallied. The expected peace talks on Tuesday could be one factor. Bitcoin had a similar rally when the ceasefire was first announced.

“This pattern of rallies followed by quick pullbacks has become a defining feature of recent trading, highlighting a market that is capable of upward momentum but struggles to sustain it once key resistance levels come into play,” Axel Rudolph, senior technical analyst at investment management firm IG, said on Monday.

Another, as QCP noted, is the nomination hearing of Kevin Warsh on Wednesday. US President Donald Trump’s pick to head the Federal Reserve is seen as a pro-crypto candidate. His confirmation is expected to result in lower interest rates, which are bullish for cryptocurrency prices.

War of words escalates

On Monday, US President Donald Trump signalled that he is unlikely to extend a two-week ceasefire with Iran, which is set to expire on Wednesday.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said that he is “winning a war by a lot” and said that the US would not remove its blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for the world’s oil, “until there is a deal.”

The blockade “is absolutely destroying Iran,” the 79-year-old posted. “They are losing $500 million dollars a day, an unsustainable number, even in the short run.”

Iran has upped the ante in response. Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of Iran’s parliament, criticised Trump for the blockade, which he said breaches the ceasefire agreement in an attempt to turn the peace talks “into a table of surrender or to justify renewed belligerence.”

“We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threat, and over the past two weeks we have prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield,” Ghalibaf tweeted on Monday.

Iran has not officially confirmed that it will send a delegation to join US Vice-President JD Vance at Tuesday’s peace talks in Pakistan.

Iranian state TV has dismissed reports to the contrary.

Crypto market movers 

• Bitcoin is up 2% over the past 24 hours, trading at $76,500.
• Ethereum is up 1% to trade at $2,327.

What we’re reading 

• Crypto’s last shot? This risks sinking the Clarity Act before midterms, warns Galaxy analyst — DL News
• Investors pull $15bn from DeFi as latest hack sparks security fears — DL News
• Ben McKenzie Says Crypto Has a Secret Ingredient: Male Loneliness — Wired
• Man, 93, tortured for 28 hours, court hears — Yahoo! News
• Argentine police arrest Chinese ‘$50m crypto scammer’ wanted for fraud in Nigeria — DL News

Eric Johansson is DL News’ managing editor. Got a tip? Email him at eric@dlnews.com.