Bitcoin Up 24% From February Lows, But Breakout in Doubt

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $75,000, about 24% higher than its recent bear-market low, thanks to a combination of institutional buying and geopolitical intrigue.

However, on-chain data show the story is more complicated, with weaker holders offloading coins and whales sending more BTC to exchanges, casting doubt on whether we are witnessing a real trend reversal or just another bear-market bounce.

Strategy’s Billions Will Not Be Enough to Break the Ceiling

According to analyst JA Maartunn, Strategy’s raising of about $2.7 billion in just two days last week was one of the biggest catalysts for the uptick in Bitcoin’s price. And today, the firm made one of its biggest BTC purchases in years, when it acquired more than 34,000 BTC for about $2.5 billion.

However, all that activity still hasn’t been enough to keep the flagship cryptocurrency above the $77,000-$78,000 range, as noted by fellow market watcher Ted Pillows.

Maartunn explained that the reason we haven’t seen prices breaking higher may be because of two groups of sellers: short-term holders (STHs), who have moved approximately 60,000 BTC to exchanges, with their SOPR reading below 1 and confirming they are selling at a loss; and whales, who have increased their exchange inflows, which is a sign that they too are distributing into the current price range.

But there is one encouraging undercurrent: over the last 30 days, the supply of Bitcoin in the hands of long-term holders (LTHs) has increased by 354,000 BTC. According to Maartunn, that accumulation means that the asset is rotating from weaker, more reactive hands into those with a longer time horizon, something he says is a stabilizing force. But even with this, combined with Strategy’s latest buy, the analyst is preaching caution.

“The key question: is it enough to push Bitcoin higher?” he wondered. “For now, this still looks like a bear market rally… But a strong breakout could quickly shift the trend.”

Geopolitics Is Adding Fuel to an Already Unstable Mix

The macro backdrop is doing little to help Bitcoin’s cause, with the asset reaching as high as $78,400 last Friday after Iran’s foreign minister announced that the Strait of Hormuz had reopened and US President Donald Trump made positive noises regarding peace talks between the two nations. However, Iran rubbished Trump’s claims, and subsequent strikes against each other caused BTC to drop below $74,000.

At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency had gone back above $75,000, representing a 6% increase in the last 7 days and nearly 9% over two weeks. However, it is still down by more than 11% on a one-year basis and still around 40% below its all-time high of over $126,000.

Meanwhile, in his assessment, Pillows said $72,000 is a key level for Bitcoin, and if it loses this, then it could retrace the entire “ceasefire pump.”

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