ARK Invest’s latest Bitcoin Quarterly argues the market has not yet reached a bottom, even as long-term conviction buyers absorbed roughly 1.47 million BTC during the first quarter’s 22% drawdown.
The firm’s Q1 2026 Bitcoin Quarterly, with data through March 31, highlights a split between bearish price action and aggressive on-chain accumulation by high-conviction holders.
Whales Stack Supply at 2020-Era Pace
ARK’s data shows supply held by conviction buyers jumped from 2.13 million BTC to 3.60 million BTC in three months. The 69% increase marks the fastest absorption phase since the 2020 cycle.
Bitcoin Accumulation By Conviction Buyers. Source: Ark Invest
That buying into a sharp price decline mirrors historical patterns where long-term holders absorb panic selling. ARK describes the pace as evidence that strong-handed participants viewed the drawdown as an opportunity.
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) balances reinforce the view, closing March near 1.29 million BTC and staying roughly flat quarter over quarter.
“Such stability suggests that institutional conviction remains strong, even amid significant downside volatility,” the report read.
Why Bitcoin Has Not Hit Bottom Yet
Bitcoin closed Q1 near $68,200 after breaking through three major on-chain supports. The 200-day moving average at $90,613, the short-term holder cost basis at $82,767, and the on-chain mean at $78,039 all gave way.
In addition, the supply in profit compressed from 78% to 50% before recovering. However, it never crossed below the supply in loss. That threshold typically signals a deep-value capitulation.
ARK places the true downside zone between the realized price near $54,000 and the investor price near $50,000. A break into that range has historically flagged a high-conviction global bottom, but neither level was breached in Q1.
Bitcoin Realized and Investor Price. Source: Ark Invest
Previously, Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into the Cryptoverse, told BeInCrypto his base case places the cycle trough in October 2026.
“The base case has to just simply be that it’ll bottom when the other two cycles bottom, which is about a year after the top most likely scenario is October of 2026,” he said.
Not every research desk agrees. Grayscale argued that Bitcoin likely found its durable floor between $65,000 and $70,000.
