Bitcoin Whales Are Dumping: But This Rare Signal Says the Bottom May Be Close

As Bitcoin fell to a 21-month low of $58,100, Santiment said on-chain data shows a widening gap between the behavior of large holders and retail investors.

Wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC reduced their combined holdings by 0.37% since June 15, according to Santiment’s Supply Distribution metric. This indicates continued selling by whales and sharks during the market decline. On the other hand, wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC increased their holdings by 0.51% over the same period, suggesting that smaller investors are continuing to buy the dip.

Rare Bottom Signal

Santiment said this divergence is indicative of how retail traders appear convinced that the market is nearing a bottom and is “treating the dip like a buying opportunity”, while larger stakeholders remain on the sidelines and “refusing to bite for now.”

The analytics firm added that Bitcoin and the broader crypto market may need more time to establish a convincing bottom until large holders resume accumulation.

Meanwhile, a separate analysis by Ali Martinez highlighted that Bitcoin has entered a rare on-chain phase that has historically appeared only around major market bottoms. The analyst found that around 10.45 million BTC are currently held at a loss, while about 9.60 million BTC remain profitable. This is the first time in the current market cycle that Bitcoin’s supply in loss has exceeded its supply in profit.

Martinez said the crossover suggests that more than half of the circulating BTC supply is now underwater, meaning much of the speculative froth has been washed out of the market. Looking at historical cycles, he said that the same pattern has occurred only a handful of times over the past 15 years.

The first crossover appeared in September 2011, following which Bitcoin established its bottom by November that year before beginning a new bull market. A second crossover emerged in September 2014 and remained in place until October 2015, when the next major expansion began.

The pattern repeated in November 2018 before the crypto asset started a new bull market in March 2019. During the market crash in March 2020, the crossover lasted just 17 days before prices recovered sharply in April.

Martinez explained that the first crossover in the current cycle occurred in June 2026 and remains active. While the analyst acknowledged that these periods have historically lasted anywhere from a few weeks to several months, he added that the current setup places Bitcoin in what he described as a high-conviction accumulation zone.

Macro Catalysts Still Needed

Looking beyond on-chain metrics, Bitget’s Chief Analyst, Ryan Lee, believes that the market needs a stronger catalyst. This includes better macro data, a rebound in Bitcoin ETF inflows, cooling geopolitical risk, or renewed institutional positioning. In a statement to CryptoPotato, Lee said,

“The next major signals will be US inflation data and how it reshapes expectations for Fed policy. We see crypto remaining highly sensitive to any shift in the rate outlook because Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins are still trading as liquidity-sensitive risk assets. If inflation stays sticky, the Fed would have less room to cut rates and could maintain a more hawkish stance for longer. It eventually pressures crypto prices by reducing risk appetite, tightening liquidity, and making non-yielding assets less attractive.”

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