Bitcoin (BTC) price trades near $74,815 on the 8-hour chart. The token is testing the top of an ascending channel that has held since March 29. Yet three bearish warnings have flashed between April 14 and April 16.
Meanwhile, the two largest Bitcoin whale cohorts have started offloading coins. Bybit’s 7-day liquidation map shows long positions outweighing shorts by nearly 2 to 1. The setup points to a long squeeze risk, not a breakout.
Price Builds a Channel but 3 Bearish Warnings Flash in Three Days
Bitcoin’s price has been trading inside an ascending channel since March 29. The structure has produced a steady sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Price is now sitting near the upper boundary of that channel.
However, three bearish warnings have appeared in as many sessions. The first warning came on April 14. Price approached the upper channel but failed to break above it. That rejection marked the first sign of weakness.
The second warning flashed between April 7 and April 15. A standard bearish divergence formed. Price made a higher high while the relative strength index (RSI), a momentum indicator, made a lower high. That divergence led to a roughly 3% correction.
A third bearish divergence flashed between April 7 and April 16. BTC price again printed a higher high, but the Bitcoin RSI made another lower high relative to the April 7 level. That created back-to-back divergences, a rare structural warning.
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One failed breakout attempt and two bearish divergences in the same week rarely resolve to the upside. The next question is whether large holders are reading the same signals.
Whales Are Dropping Their Stash as the Warnings Align
Meanwhile, on-chain data from Santiment shows that the two largest Bitcoin cohorts have begun reducing their holdings. The cohort holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC dropped their stash from 2.26 million BTC on April 12, before the warnings even flashed. That figure now sits at 2.23 million. Roughly 30,000 BTC were offloaded in under a week.
The larger cohort, holding between 100,000 and 1 million BTC, started selling on April 15. That was the same day the first bearish divergence fully formed. Their holdings dropped from 670,440 BTC to 664,000 BTC, a decline of roughly 6,400 BTC. Combined, the two largest whale cohorts have dumped over 36,000 BTC in under a week.
Both drops coincide with the technical warnings. The timing suggests the largest holders are treating the divergences seriously. Whales tend to move first when structural weakness emerges.
Meanwhile, derivatives data reinforces the picture. On Bybit, cumulative long liquidation leverage over the past seven days sits at $2.37 billion. Short liquidation leverage stands at $1.31 billion. That imbalance leaves longs carrying 1.8x the liquidation risk of shorts.
Heavy long positioning plus whale distribution plus two bearish divergences creates the conditions for a long squeeze.
Bitcoin Price Levels That Decide Between Squeeze and Breakout
Bitcoin price at $74,815 sits between two critical lines. The first upside test is $76,130, close to the upper channel boundary. A clean 8-hour close above that level would liquidate the stacked short positions and open a path higher.
However, the nearest downside threat is $73,484, the 0.236 Fibonacci level. A loss of that support would mirror the last divergence’s 3% drop. That would expose $71,846, the 0.382 Fibonacci, and $70,523, the 0.5 Fibonacci.
Yet a drop under $69,199, the 0.618 Fibonacci, would align with the lower trendline of the ascending channel. A break of that level would invalidate the bullish structure in the short term. Targets below open at $67,315 and $64,915.
