A four-year-old Bitcoin (BTC) trading model says the next accumulation window opens in late November 2026, roughly 500 days before the April 2028 halving.
The rule, shared by analyst Crypto Rover, tells traders to buy 500 days before each halving and sell 500 days after. Its timing has tracked the last three Bitcoin cycles closely.
The 500-Day Rule Has Tracked Three Cycles
Crypto Rover’s chart marks a green buy zone 500 days before each halving and a red sell zone 500 days after. The setup repeats across every cycle since 2013.
History supports the sell side. Bitcoin peaked about 526 days after the 2016 halving and roughly 545 days after the 2020 halving.
The 2024 cycle fit the pattern too. Bitcoin topped at $126,296 on October 6, 2025.
That high landed 535 days after the April 2024 halving. It sat inside the 480 to 550 day window seen in every prior cycle, according to CoinGecko data.
The buy side has worked as well. The 500-day mark before the 2020 halving lined up with the December 2018 bottom near $3,200.
A similar buy window before the 2016 halving caught the early 2015 low. In each case, accumulation began while sentiment was still deeply negative.
Bitcoin Halving Countdown Points to a November 2026 Buy
The next halving is set for around April 13, 2028, at block 1,050,000. A live countdown puts the event roughly 658 days away.
At that point, the block reward drops from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC. The timing anchors both signals in the model.
Counting back 500 days places the buy window near November 30, 2026. That is about five months from now.
The literal sell date, 500 days after the halving, falls in late August 2029. However, past tops arrived closer to 535 days, which points to a sell zone in mid-to-late 2029.
The drift suggests the rule works best as a wide zone rather than a single day. Traders who treated the 2025 signal that way still exited near the record high.
Bitcoin Price Outlook and the Cycle’s Weak Spots
Bitcoin trades near $62,675, up 0.8% over 24 hours, with a market cap around $1.26 trillion. The price has fallen more than 50% from its October 2025 record.
That drawdown still fits the trend. Each Bitcoin bear market has been shallower than the last, moving from about 86% to 84%, then 78%, and now roughly 50%.
Analysts credit steadier demand from exchange-traded funds and corporate treasuries for the softer declines. Several argue global liquidity now drives price more than block rewards.
That shift matters for the model. The October 2025 top formed as a slow grind rather than a sharp blow-off, and classic peak indicators such as MVRV largely failed to flag it.
The model also carries clear limits. It rests on only three full cycles, and the sell signal has fired early each time. Some researchers suggest the four-year rhythm is stretching toward five years, which would push the next top later.
A delayed cycle would also move the buy signal. If the halving slips past mid-April 2028, the 500-day mark drifts into December 2026. Traders watching the model will likely treat late 2026 as a range rather than a fixed date.
For now, the rule offers a simple map. Whether the November 2026 buy signal marks another bottom, or the first cycle the pattern misses, will define the next two years for Bitcoin.
