Bitcoin’s (BTC) On-Chain Data Just Flashed a Major Warning Sign

Bitcoin is showing signs of a capitulation phase as capital continues leaving the network and investors lock in losses across the market, according to the latest analysis by crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr.

Data suggests that Bitcoin’s Realized Cap 30D Change dropped to -1.1%. This is the first time since mid-March that outflows have reached this level.

Capitulation Signals

Realized Cap measures the aggregate value of all Bitcoin based on the price at which coins last moved, and its 30-day change is used to track whether capital is entering or leaving the network. Adler explained that Realized Cap declined by around $12 billion from its mid-May peak of approximately $1.087 trillion to $1.075 trillion.

The pace of contraction also accelerated sharply in recent days. On June 1, the indicator was still at -0.15%, but by June 8 it had fallen to -1.1%. During the same period, BTC’s price dropped from $82,000 to $63,000, representing a 23% decline. According to the analysis, the current pace of outflows is already comparable to the early stage of the March capitulation event, when the indicator eventually fell to -2.4%. This suggests there is still room for further deterioration before conditions reach the March extremes.

The first positive sign would be stabilization in the 30-day change near zero before turning upward. Until then, the market regime remains negative.

The analysis also revealed that Bitcoin’s Adjusted SOPR SMA-30, or aSOPR, which measures whether coins are being sold at a profit or loss, fell below the crucial 1.0 level on May 28 and has now remained below that threshold for 13 consecutive days.

Its current reading of 0.987 indicates that coins moved on-chain are being sold at an average loss of about 1.3%. The indicator has continued trending downward without any meaningful recovery since breaking below 1.0.

As such, a continued period with aSOPR below 1 is a classic sign of weak hands being flushed out of the market. Adler added that sellers remain in control until the indicator reverses upward and retests the 1.0 level. The analyst said the major trigger for a regime change would be a recovery in aSOPR above 1.0 alongside stabilization in Realized Cap outflows. Until those signals appear, the market remains in a capitulation regime, with the risk of deeper outflows toward the March extreme of -2.4%.

Historical Profitability Reset

Separate data from CryptoQuant revealed that Bitcoin’s Percent Supply in Profit metric is moving closer to the 45% level. This area has historically coincided with deeper corrections and capitulation phases. The decline indicates that recent price weakness is no longer affecting only a small group of holders, as a growing portion of the Bitcoin supply has now lost its unrealized profit cushion.

CryptoQuant added that similar profitability compression in previous cycles often took place as weaker hands exited the market while long-term investors gradually accumulated coins.

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