Bitcoin’s Current Setup Resembles Pre-FTX Collapse Pattern, Analyst Says

TL;DR:

• Bitcoin briefly surpassed $67,000 following the U.S.-Iran peace deal, but analysts warn of a possible capitulation event ahead.
• Analyst Doctor Profit detected on BTC’s weekly chart the same bullish divergence that preceded the FTX collapse in 2022.
• On-chain data from Alphractal shows BTC recorded the second largest unrealized loss in its history, with a capitulation still pending.

Bitcoin briefly rebounded and reached $67,000 after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a peace deal with Iran. The agreement would include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports and shipping routes, though many details have yet to be confirmed. Despite the recovery, several analysts warn that the market could be approaching a deep capitulation event before reaching a definitive bottom.

Bitcoin Repeats Patterns

The analyst known as Doctor Profit identified on Bitcoin’s weekly chart a bullish divergence similar to the one that formed weeks before the collapse of FTX in November 2022. At that time, the cryptocurrency was rising while generating that technical signal, which led numerous traders to buy near $20,000.

#Bitcoin – Warning for all Euphoria:

Interesting Observation: Right before the FTX crash (Capitulation Event), Bitcoin was in a rising move and forming a Bullish Divergence on the Weekly Time Frame, many traders saw this as signal and bought at 20k, just to panic sell the… pic.twitter.com/UZ7QisuJNf

— Doctor Profit (@DrProfitCrypto) June 15, 2026

The subsequent capitulation left many investors with losses of around 20%. According to the analyst, the current structure presents the same characteristics: buying pressure and bullish divergence on the weekly time frame, conditions that have historically preceded sharp downward moves before the market finds its real bottom.

On-chain data supports this outlook. Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, revealed that Bitcoin recorded the second largest unrealized loss in its history, indicating that a large number of holders are currently underwater. However, realized losses remain relatively low, a signal that panic selling has not yet materialized. Wedson warned that the gap between both metrics suggests that a generalized capitulation could be triggered if investors begin selling aggressively at a loss.

A Bottom Orbiting $48,000

Analyst Ali Martinez noted that the CVDD indicator, which has historically marked the major market bottoms of Bitcoin, is currently sitting near $48,000. That level could become decisive if the correction deepens. The figure coincides with the $40,000 to $48,000 zone that Doctor Profit had previously identified as the likely final bottom range for the current cycle, which lends greater weight to that support as both a technical and on-chain reference simultaneously.