Bitcoin (BTC) climbed above $78,000 on Friday, reaching its highest level in over two months as a confirmed double-bottom breakout fueled momentum toward the $80,000 zone.
The rally followed Iran’s reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under ceasefire terms, which triggered a broad risk-on move across equities and crypto. Yet analysts remain sharply divided on whether BTC can sustain the push through heavy overhead resistance.
Weekly Close Holds the Key to $80,000
As of this writing, Bitcoin was trading for $77,922, just shy of the $80,000 psychological level last tested on January 31, 2026.
IRAN HAS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THE STRAIT OF IRAN IS FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE. THANK YOU!
— Commentary Donald J. Trump Posts From Truth Social (@TrumpDailyPosts) April 17, 2026
Against this backdrop, eyes remain peeled on whether the Bitcoin price can reclaim the $80,000 psychological level this weekend, potentially drawing tailwinds from resounding risk-on sentiment.
US Indices Perfrormance (DOW, S&P500, Nasdaq)
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that BTC has maintained itself above the double-bottom formation top near $73,000, positioning price for a positive weekly close.
However, he cautioned that a similar setup in March ended with an upside wick and a subsequent rejection.
“Bitcoin’s progression on the Daily timeframe has been promising, enabling price to maintain itself above the Double Bottom formation top of ~$73,000… it is the upcoming Weekly Close that will be most important to watch for,” wrote Rekt Capital.
On the daily chart, BTC has flipped former resistance levels near $73,000 into support, with consecutive daily closes above prior breakdown zones.
If this behavior continues, it could confirm the breakout from a multi-week consolidation range.
Trader Ted Pillows identified $76,000 as the key reclaim level that could propel price into the $78,000 to $80,000 band.
“The key zone for Bitcoin here is $76,000 and a reclaim could push BTC towards the $78,000-$80,000 zone. This is where I’ll go short on Bitcoin,” wrote Ted.
Indeed, Bitcoin’s foray past $76,000 provided an entry for long positions, with a brief test of the $78,000 threshold on Friday catching many naysayers off guard. According to Coinglass data, nearly $100 million in short positions were liquidated in the last hour.
Despite the short-term bullish structure, Rekt Capital also flagged significant macro headwinds. He argued that for BTC to build sustained bullish momentum, it would need to reclaim $82,500 and break its multi-month series of lower highs.
For Bitcoin to build renewed and sustained macro bullish momentum it would need to reclaim not just $82500 but also break its multi-month series of Lower Highs (Macro Downtrend)
History suggests neither of these technical milestones will happen and that the Bear Market…
History suggests neither milestone will happen, with roughly six months of bear market potentially remaining.
The 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), which tends to act as resistance during bear markets, sits directly in the current price path. The broader oil shock from the Hormuz crisis adds another layer of macro uncertainty.
BTC is also clustering beneath a macro triangle it broke down from months ago, a pattern that in 2014 resolved through distribution to the downside.
QCP Group echoed the caution, noting that derivatives desks still favor downside protection. The rally appears spot-driven and fragile rather than a structural trend change.
Ted Pillows separately disclosed plans to short BTC near the $79,000 to $80,000 zone, citing a pattern from the last two local tops where price took out the capitulation candle’s highs before reversing.
During the last 2 local tops, $BTC took out the highs of the capitulation candle.
If this happens again, Bitcoin will peak in the $79,000-$80,000 zone where I'm planning to go short. pic.twitter.com/UoNU80fNNQ
On-Chain Data Signals Accumulation but Needs Confirmation
Meanwhile, multiple on-chain indicators have flashed mixed signals throughout April. CryptoQuant analyst Woo Mink Yu pointed to the Bitcoin Combined Market Index, or BCMI, which has dropped into the 0.2 to 0.3 range.
This zone has historically marked deep undervaluation.
“We are entering a ‘Value-Accumulation Zone.’ The data suggests the downside is becoming limited compared to the long-term upside. However, wait for price stabilisation to confirm the index’s bottom signal,” wrote Cryptoquant analyst Woominkyu.
Supporting the case for a healthier rally, separate CryptoQuant data showed that Binance open interest has plunged even as the price climbs.
Bitcoin Divergence: Price Rally Driven by Spot as Binance Open Interest Plunges
