Bitcoin’s recovery is being driven by perpetual futures traders, not organic spot buyers, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. On-chain apparent demand remains net negative despite heavy ETF inflows and corporate accumulation.
Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $77,500 after failing to push through $80,000. The divergence between futures positioning and spot flows is becoming the defining feature of the April market.
Investors are Betting on Bitcoin Price, Not Buying
Ki Young Ju shared a CryptoQuant chart showing the growth in 30-day Bitcoin spot and perpetual futures demand. The purple futures bars have climbed back into positive territory through April 2026.
The gray spot bars, however, remain below the zero line for most of the month. Spot demand growth is still contracting on a 30-day basis, even as price action has recovered.
That gap matters because perpetual futures positions can be opened with leverage and unwound just as quickly. Spot buying, by contrast, requires fresh capital to absorb supply at the offer.
Bitcoin is currently futures-driven.
Open interest is rising, but on-chain apparent demand remains net negative despite ETF inflows and Saylor buys.
ETF Flows and MicroStrategy Buys Have Not Flipped the Signal
US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $786 million in their strongest weekly inflow since February in mid-April. Inflows continued at $823 million the next week, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading demand.
MicroStrategy, the corporate vehicle led by Michael Saylor, also bought 34,164 BTC for $2.54 billion in its third-largest single purchase. The buy was made at an average price of $74,395, lifting total holdings to 815,061 BTC.
Despite both flows, on-chain apparent demand has remained net negative through April. CryptoQuant data showed 30-day apparent demand near -87,600 BTC earlier in the month.
The gap suggests ETF and Strategy purchases are being matched and exceeded by selling from existing holders and miners.
When Will the Bear Market End?
Ki Young Ju has tracked Bitcoin demand cycles for years. He previously declared the cycle theory dead, citing structural rotation between old whales and new long-term holders.
His latest framing suggests that sustainable bottoms form only when spot and futures demand recover at the same time. A futures-led rebound without a spot recovery has historically resolved through another leg lower as leverage unwinds.
The current setup matches that pattern. Funding rates have ticked up, open interest is rising, but the underlying spot bid remains weak.
Traders are now watching whether spot demand, as measured by CryptoQuant, can flip positive in the coming weeks. A turn would suggest fresh capital is finally absorbing the supply pressure flagged in earlier warnings.
If futures positioning continues to lead while spot demand stays red, the rally faces a familiar risk. Previous mid-cycle bounces in 2025 unwound the same way, through forced liquidation rather than fresh dollar inflows.
