A senior Federal Reserve official has put a possible 2026 interest rate hike back in focus, adding new pressure on US stocks. Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said Friday that he now expects one rate increase in 2026 and does not see cuts coming soon.
His comments are critical because Kashkari has long been seen as one of the Fed’s more dovish policymakers. His shift suggests inflation concerns are spreading inside the central bank, leaving investors to rethink how long borrowing costs may stay high.
FED'S KASHKARI: I HAVE ONE RATE HIKE PENCILED IN FOR 2026; I SEE RATES ON HOLD IN 2027
Why the Kashkari Rate Hike Call Matters for Stocks
Kashkari’s comments came shortly after the Fed’s June policy meeting, where officials voted 12-0 to hold interest rates between 3.50% and 3.75%.
The bigger signal came from the Fed’s own projections. Nine of the 18 officials now expect at least one rate hike in 2026. The median forecast also moved higher, rising to 3.8% from 3.4% in March.
Investors had spent much of the year expecting the next major move to be a cut. The June meeting weakened that assumption and pushed markets toward a more uncomfortable possibility: borrowing costs may stay higher for longer.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh also moved away from forward guidance, the practice of giving markets a clearer sense of where policy may go next. That makes each inflation report and jobs report more important, because traders now have fewer signals from the central bank in advance.
Markets are already reacting to that risk. Futures prices show traders see about a 30% chance of a July hike, according to CME FedWatch data. They also put the odds of at least one rate increase by December at roughly 76%, keeping the risk of another Fed hike firmly in view.
“I’m concerned about inflation, and it’s not only tied to what’s happening in the Middle East, it’s just the impression of broader inflationary pressures in the economy,” Kashkari said.
The last hiking cycle shows the stakes. As the Fed raised rates through 2022, Bitcoin fell from about $69,000 to near $15,500.
A late-2026 hike would reinforce the backdrop behind recent bearish calls.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes sees a $40,000 Bitcoin bottom within six months, citing a hawkish Fed. His six-month window runs into late 2026, the same stretch Kashkari flagged for a possible hike.
China’s top Bitcoin miner, Jiang Zhuoer, expects a similar floor around $42,000 to $44,000 in late 2026. He built the call on Strategy’s mNAV near 0.72, close to its 2022 bear-market low. Both targets sit between about 27% and 34% below current levels.
Other signals cut the other way. Wintermute says leverage has largely cleared, while Hayes still holds a year-end target above $200,000.
Investors now look to upcoming inflation and jobs data for the next signal. Whether Kashkari’s hike lands in late 2026 may shape equity valuations and Bitcoin price forecasts into year-end.
