Is Bitcoin (BTC) Cheap Now? Grayscale Flags Major Buying Opportunity

Bitcoin’s (BTC) drop to a new cycle low briefly below $60,000 has raised fresh questions across the market about whether the asset has become cheap again.

According to Grayscale Research, the asset currently appears undervalued based on multiple on-chain metrics. Still, the report said current conditions are not as extreme as past bear market bottoms, especially the period after FTX failed and triggered heavy selling pressure across crypto markets.

Two Key Catalysts

Bitcoin’s current price remains well below its long-term average, as highlighted by Grayscale’s composite onchain valuation indicator, built from a weighted average of three separate measures. However, the firm said that the current bear market may end up being shallower than past cycles because the preceding bull market was also more “muted.”

Grayscale said the crypto market is now stronger than in previous cycles because of wider access to exchange-traded products, increased deployment of crypto on wealth management platforms, and increasing institutional participation. The firm believes these factors could make the current downturn less severe than earlier bear markets.

Looking ahead, the firm said investors should closely watch two major short-term catalysts. The first is progress surrounding the CLARITY Act in the US Senate, while the second is whether leveraged Bitcoin holders can stabilize their balance sheets in the near term. While Grayscale said it remains optimistic about the CLARITY Act, prediction markets currently suggest the outcome remains uncertain.

Despite the uncertainty around whether Bitcoin has already found its bottom, the firm believes current price levels present a buying opportunity for investors with long-term horizons, particularly through dollar-cost averaging strategies. However, Grayscale added that more tactical traders may prefer to wait for greater clarity around the legislation before making moves.

Capitulation Risk Remains

Separately, Fidelity Digital Assets said Bitcoin has remained in a “death cross” for more than 200 days, while the price briefly slipped below its 200-week moving average over the weekend. The firm noted that similar breaks in the past have often coincided with forced selling events, including during the 2022 collapse.

Meanwhile, analytics firm Swissblock said that Bitcoin’s Risk Index and spot BTC ETF net flows are showing some of the clearest signals of whether the market is stabilizing. It explained that the Risk Index usually starts declining once selling pressure begins easing and ETF accumulation gradually returns, which indicates that the market may be absorbing fresh sell-offs.

However, Swissblock warned that the crypto asset remains under structural pressure as long as the Risk Index stays within what it describes as “Capitulation Risk.”

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