Morgan Stanley’s head of digital asset strategy, Amy Oldenberg, said Bitcoin reaching $1 million is possible over time, while cautioning that a move of that scale would likely require either a long adoption cycle or a major dislocation in traditional markets.

Speaking with Natalie Brunell on Coin Stories, Oldenberg framed the next phase of Bitcoin adoption less as a sudden “J curve” and more as a gradual institutional buildout, led by product access, adviser education, custody infrastructure and client demand. Her comments come as Morgan Stanley continues expanding its digital asset footprint through its spot ETF, wealth management and e*Trade presence.

Morgan Stanley Exec Sees Bitcoin Grinding Higher

Oldenberg avoided making a direct price target, but she did address the idea of Bitcoin eventually reaching seven figures. “I don’t see why we couldn’t,” she said, referring to a $1 million Bitcoin. “Of everything I’ve seen in my life I will believe anything that it’s possible.”

Still, she pushed back against the idea that such a move should be expected quickly or without broader consequences. “Anything that extreme needs to happen over time,” Oldenberg said. “Because if something happens that’s that extreme in my mind it means there was some other extreme event that happened.”

That distinction shaped much of her broader outlook. Asked what Bitcoin adoption might look like five or ten years from now, Oldenberg said she expects continued growth through 2030, but not necessarily a vertical repricing. “I don’t think you’re going to see just some incredible J curve that like we hit 2027 and it just totally takes off. I think it’ll be very similar to what we’ve lived through already where you’ve just continued to see more entrants, they get educated, they figure it out, we move up, and we kind of grind higher here.”

Her comments reflect the tension now defining institutional Bitcoin: more access, more credibility and more infrastructure, but still a market that has not fully decoupled from risk-asset behavior. Oldenberg noted that Bitcoin continues to confuse some clients because it is often pitched as a real asset or neutral reserve asset, yet has not always traded like gold during periods of macro stress.

Adviser Education Remains A Bottleneck

Morgan Stanley’s own model portfolio guidance remains measured. Oldenberg said the firm has recommended BTC allocations of 0% to 2% in some portfolios and 2% to 4% in more aggressive ones, depending on the client’s risk profile. But she said adviser adoption continues to lag client interest, largely because the product set and the asset itself still require education.

The firm’s recently launched Bitcoin ETP, MSBT, had what Oldenberg described as the best first-day ETF debut in Morgan Stanley’s history. She said the product was designed to bring an institutional construct to the market, launching with a 14 basis point management fee and a custody setup involving Coinbase and BNY. The aim, she said, was to push more traditional financial infrastructure into Bitcoin products rather than simply replicate existing offerings.

Oldenberg also highlighted the distinction between owning Bitcoin directly and holding shares of a Bitcoin ETF, a point she said still requires education. “I love the people that tell me like I have exposure to Bitcoin so if something goes wrong, you know, I have Bitcoin,” she said. “I’m like no you don’t have Bitcoin. You have shares of a Bitcoin ETF that offer you price exposure to Bitcoin.”

That distinction matters as Morgan Stanley begins offering more services around Bitcoin exposure. Oldenberg said clients who move Bitcoin exposure into an ETP on the wealth platform may be treated as wealth clients and, depending on the size of their holdings, can potentially access lending against the position. She cited a “release rate of 50%” on the Bitcoin ETF, meaning the firm can lend up to half the value of the product.

Banks Still Need Better Regulatory Treatment

Oldenberg said banks are not avoiding Bitcoin because of hostility toward the asset, but because capital treatment, regulatory obligations and balance sheet efficiency still determine how they allocate resources. For banks to hold Bitcoin directly or use it more broadly as collateral, she said the environment must become more supportive.

She also warned that crypto assets are too often grouped together despite serving different purposes. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and XRP, she said, should not be treated as interchangeable simply because they sit under the same “crypto” label.