The past several months have been quite unpleasant for Bitcoin investors, as the asset’s price has tumbled by nearly 50% from its historical peak set in October last year.

Still, conditions have clearly improved compared to June and early July, prompting numerous pundits to declare that the bear market is finally behind us and predict rallies to new records. Others prefer to stay cautious, insisting that it might be too early for the bulls to start celebrating.

The Uptrend Begins?

The primary cryptocurrency has consolidated at around $65K, representing a 16% surge from the multi-year low under $58K seen at the beginning of July. Over the past few days, popular analysts like Ali Martinez, Michael van de Poppe, and Merlijn The Trader have presented arguments why the market may have already found its bottom, hinting that the price could be positioning for a strong rally.

Many other commentators, including Ted and Max Crypto, followed suit and discussed the matter. The former claimed that BTC has “a decent chance of pumping from here” as long as the bulls hold the crucial $63,000 level. The latter opined that the asset has broken out of its 10-month downtrend and is now poised for an upswing.

Rekt Fencer appears to be the biggest optimist. They projected a price explosion to $400,000, arguing that a year from now nobody will care whether they bought BTC 10% higher: they’ll only regret not purchasing more.

The whale activity and institutional interest support the optimistic perspective. According to CryptoQuant, large investors have boosted their total holdings to roughly 3.06 million BTC in 2026: a development that signals growing conviction among these players and could encourage retail to join as well.

For their part, spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded five consecutive green days, meaning that pension funds, hedge funds, and other conservative investors have shown a growing appetite. This has required the products’ issuers, such as BlackRock, Fidelity, Bitwise, and other financial giants, to buy real BTC from the market, thus reinforcing the broader bullish setup.

Not so Quick

Whales may have accumulated heavily, yet the biggest corporate holder of BTC, Strategy, announced its fourth Bitcoin sale of the year. This happened just hours ago, and it remains unclear how the market will digest the news. In any case, it is a major bearish signal since it comes from a company that for years followed the cult “only buy, never sell.”

The four-year cycle (if still valid) should also be taken into consideration. Earlier this summer, CryptoPotato reported that BTC’s past behavior across different stages signals a potential bottom between October 4 and October 17 – a window which aligns almost perfectly with the forecasts of multiple analysts.

One should also keep in mind that August has historically been a poor month for the cryptocurrency, whose price has finished in red territory 9 out of 13 times.

Meanwhile, veteran trader Peter Brandt reviewed BTC’s performance over the past several months and said that if he had to place a bet, he would lean toward a decline.