Trump Signs the US-Iran Peace MoU, but the Fed Stops Bitcoin’s Recovery Cold

Donald Trump signed the US-Iran peace Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), marking a historic geopolitical milestone, but Bitcoin failed to recover from the Federal Reserve’s hawkish shock. BTC is trading at $64,339 after a 2.10% drop over the past 24 hours.

Here is what the MoU includes, what the Fed actually said, and why crypto markets cannot shake off the broader macro pressure.

What the Trump US-Iran Peace MoU Brings to Markets

The US-Iran peace MoU is a 14-point diplomatic agreement designed to end ongoing military operations and stabilize the entire region. The pact includes verification mechanisms, partial sanctions relief, and a calendar for technical talks on Iran’s nuclear program.

The MoU was mediated by Pakistan with strong support from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. Trump described it as a triumph of his diplomacy and signature “Art of the Deal” approach.

Bitcoin initially rallied to $66,315 on the news, with geopolitical relief lifting broader risk appetite. Oil and gold pulled back sharply as the geopolitical premium quickly faded across global financial markets.

However, the optimism did not last. Bitcoin reversed sharply lower after the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision overshadowed the entire geopolitical narrative. Furthermore, BTC now sits closer to its 7-day low of $61,464 than to its recent weekly high.

Why the Fed Hawkish Shock Sent Bitcoin Lower

Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first FOMC decision on June 17. The Fed held rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting. However, the statement removed previous references to additional rate adjustments.

The shift to a neutral, fully data-dependent stance surprised markets. Moreover, 9 of 18 FOMC participants now project at least one rate hike for 2026. That is a dramatic pivot from previous projections that leaned toward cuts or extended holds.

The hawkish tone validates warnings from Citadel Securities about rising risks of a September rate hike. Strong wages, resilient demand, supply constraints, and AI-driven investment keep inflation stubbornly around 4.2% year-over-year, well above the Fed’s 2% target.

Markets reacted swiftly to the announcement. The S&P 500 fell 1.5%, the Nasdaq dropped 2%, and the Dow lost 160 points. Treasury yields jumped, with the 2-year yield rising 11 basis points to 4.153% and the 10-year yield rising 12 basis points to 4.469%.

Bitcoin tracked the broader risk-off move. The cryptocurrency could not absorb the hawkish shock, even with the US-Iran deal supporting the geopolitical narrative. As a result, BTC now trades 4.10% below its weekly high of $67,203, according to CoinGecko data.

The combined backdrop highlights a critical lesson for crypto traders. Geopolitical wins can boost sentiment briefly, but monetary policy decisions still dominate the medium-term outlook for Bitcoin and risk assets across every major asset class.

The post appeared first on BeInCrypto.