Roughly $10.63 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options expire on Deribit Friday. The settlement drops into a market that keeps sliding lower while traders hunt for a floor.
Bitcoin trades near $60,200 after a 2% daily drop, while ether sits around $1,580 after a steeper 4.43% fall. Both rest far below their options max pain levels.
Puts Command a Premium as Traders Brace for Downside
Friday’s settlement ranks as the quarter’s largest options event on Deribit. The bulk of expiring value sits in Bitcoin, with notional contracts worth about $9.06 billion against ether’s $1.57 billion. Max pain marks the price where the most options expire worthless. Bitcoin’s level sits at $70,000, while ether’s sits at $2,000.
Open interest leans toward calls in raw terms, yet positioning tells a cautious story. Bitcoin’s put-to-call ratio sits at 0.63, with 92,154 calls against 57,652 puts. Ether’s ratio runs lower at 0.50. The heavier call count reflects bullish bets now stranded well above the current price. Bitcoin’s recent options expiry events have followed a similar defensive pattern.
According to Greeks.live, Bitcoin’s 25-delta skew has turned sharply negative on short-dated contracts. The skew reads -10.7% at one day, -11.3% at seven days, and -9.6% at one month. By contrast, longer tenors stay calmer near -6% and -5%.
“Puts continue to command a meaningful premium over calls across all major tenors,” analysts at Greeks.live stated.
That premium reflects steady demand for near-term downside protection. Traders are paying up to hedge a further slide rather than chase upside. Bitcoin’s recent price action has kept that hedging active through the week.
The Bottom Question Hangs Over Settlement
Greeks.live places negative gamma between $60,000 and $64,000, the band where Bitcoin trades now. Positive gamma spreads across $67,000 to $82,000, with clusters near $67,000, $71,000, $75,000, and $80,000. The June, July, and September contracts drive most of that dealer exposure. The firm notes these readings exclude IBIT data.
That structure can keep price action choppy near current levels through expiry. Meanwhile, ether’s steeper price drop has pushed it well below its $2,000 max pain mark.
The expiry also lands during a broad crypto downturn. Both assets have slid to multi-month lows this week, deepening the case for caution into settlement.
Some forecasters expect deeper losses first. Jiang Zhuoer, founder of mining pool BTC.TOP, sees a late-2026 bottom forecast near $42,000 to $44,000. He points to Strategy’s mNAV slipping to 0.72, close to its 2022 low. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has floated a $40,000 Bitcoin bottom within six months. Even so, his year-end target still runs above $200,000.
Jiang’s broader four-year cycle model points to a bottom around late October. He has mined through several halvings and plans to buy back near the low.
Deribit, however, cautions against reading too much into the max pain pull.
“While max pain remains a widely followed metric, recent quarterly expiries have shown limited evidence of a consistent pinning effect ahead of settlement,” Deribit analysts indicated.
Both assets remain stuck below max pain heading into settlement. The next sessions may show whether sellers extend the search for a bottom or buyers finally step in.
