Bitcoin’s Total Supply in Loss has climbed to a record 10.7 million coins, even as a sharp drop in oil prices revives hope that cooling inflation could keep the Fed from hiking and let BTC hold $60,000.
The on-chain reading marks the most coins ever held at a loss. Two earlier peaks this cycle landed close to local price bottoms, so traders are watching whether the pattern repeats.
A Record Number of Bitcoin Held at a Loss
Glassnode data shows Total Supply in Loss reached 10,694,567 BTC on June 25, the highest figure on record.
High readings tend to appear after deep selloffs, when many holders sit underwater. That stress can also mark the point where sellers run out of supply.
The Bitcoin supply in loss signal has tracked turning points before. In early February, the metric spiked near 9.9 million coins as BTC carved out a local bottom. In November, another peak preceded a rebound from around $85,143.
Analysts have flagged similar rare bottom signals flashing earlier this cycle. None of these readings guarantees a low, but the clustering near past bottoms keeps the metric in focus.
Whether that floor holds, however, may hinge less on the chart and more on a macro shift now playing out in the oil market.
Why Falling Oil Matters for Inflation
Brent crude has fallen close to 27% over the past month to about $74 a barrel. WTI trades near $70 after briefly dipping below that mark.
The slide came as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz eased and a US license cleared some Iranian crude transactions. JPMorgan cut its Brent forecast to $80 for the fourth quarter and $64 next year.
ANALYSTS CUT OIL PRICE FORECASTS
Major banks are lowering oil price forecasts as tensions ease and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes. JPMorgan now expects Brent crude to average $80 a barrel in Q4 and $64 next year, citing weaker demand. Capital Economics and Wood…
Energy did most of the damage in the latest inflation report. May CPI rose 4.2% from a year earlier, the fastest pace in three years, as energy prices jumped 3.9% on the month.
Energy costs were up 23.5% over 12 months, tied to the supply shock from the Iran conflict and the Hormuz disruption. That single category did the heavy lifting.
Core inflation stayed calmer at 2.9%, which suggests the spike was an energy shock rather than broad price pressure. Core goods even fell on the month, a sign tariff pass-through had faded. Cheaper crude now points the other way. That relief, however, may take far longer to reach the inflation data than the drop at the pump suggests.
The Lag That Complicates the Bull Case
Lower oil does not cool inflation right away. Research shows gasoline shocks drive about 65% of headline CPI swings but only 10% of core moves.
Direct effects on headline prices show up within two to three months, while the pass-through into core prices builds slowly over about eight quarters. So June and July prints could stay hot even as crude falls.
That gap matters for the trade. The relief from cheaper oil is real, but it may not reach official inflation data for months, which keeps the Fed cautious for now. Markets have still started to relax. On Polymarket, the odds of a 2026 Fed rate hike eased to 53% from 66% on June 20.
CME futures had recently priced a November hike near a coin flip. The Fed left its target range at 3.50% to 3.75% on June 17, citing sticky inflation and a firm labor market.
That backdrop has fed a live four-year cycle debate about whether Bitcoin is bottoming or breaking down. Any further drop in inflation expectations would remove a major weight on risk assets.
Bitcoin, Gold, and the $60,000 Test
Bitcoin trades below $60,000, near $59,400, after slipping on the day. The record supply-in-loss reading now sits right at that closely watched floor.
Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with gold stands at 0.364, a moderately positive level. Such links tend to strengthen during macro shocks as buyers rotate into safe havens.
Gold has struggled this year, sliding below $4,000 after a January record near $5,600 as rate-hike bets rose. Lately it has rebounded as Treasury yields eased.
The 10-year yield slipped to about 4.41% on June 24, its lowest in six weeks, as oil fell to pre-conflict levels. Lower yields and cooler inflation fears are exactly what could lift gold and BTC together. That dynamic frames the floor near $60,000 as a test of macro sentiment, not just chart support.
The Bitcoin supply in loss record (on-chain validation) however cuts both ways. It often marks capitulation near a bottom, the same pattern seen in February and November. Yet it does not rule out a deeper flush if $60,000 breaks and pushes even more coins into loss.
The setup hinges on one chain of events. Falling oil must cool inflation, softer inflation must lower hike odds, and lower odds must lift sentiment. Gold is already benefitting from the sentiment shift and its BTC link might come in handy.
Whether Bitcoin holds $60,000 may reveal how much of that path the market is ready to price in early, a question explored in the latest Bitcoin June price outlook.
