Polymarket traders now assign a 65% probability that Bitcoin (BTC) drops to $50,000 this year, after a hot inflation reading sent the token to its lowest level since September 2024.
The odds for lower targets have risen recently, signaling that traders now see a deeper drop as likely.
Hot Inflation Triggers the Selloff
Bitcoin slid to about $58,100 on Thursday, its lowest level since September 2024. The move tracked a hotter-than-expected inflation print.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 4.1% year over year in May 2026.
The core gauge, which excludes food and energy, reached 3.4%. The figure further dented the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates.
The repricing flushed out leveraged positions across exchanges. More than $1.26 billion in crypto positions were liquidated across 209,000 traders.
Meanwhile, trader sentiment also shifted. On Polymarket, the probability that Bitcoin falls to $50,000 this year rose to 65%. The nearer $55,000 target carried an even higher conviction at 77%.
Polymarket Odds for Bitcoin Price. Source: Polymarket
Both levels sit well below Friday’s price near $59,900. That gap shows traders now treat a deeper slide as the base case, not a tail risk.
The bearish tilt dominates the market. The sharpest recent move came on the $55,000 line, which jumped about 20 points.
Still, the board is not one-sided. The odds of Bitcoin reclaiming $70,000 this year have risen to 60%, a sign some traders expect a rebound once the selling clears.
Meanwhile, some experts target an even lower range. Arthur Hayes sees a $40,000 bottom within six months. Chinese miner Jiang Zhuoer lands close, pegging the floor at $42,000 to $44,000 in late 2026.
Whether $58,000 marks a floor may hinge on the Fed’s July meeting. With inflation rising, the case for cuts looks thin.
