Bitcoin may fall to a bottom price of 42,000-44,000.
BTC is currently trading within the $61.4K mark.
Jiang Zhuoer, a prominent Chinese Bitcoin miner and veteran market watcher, believes the current Bitcoin bear market could reach its final bottom between October and December 2026, with BTC potentially trading in the $42,000–$44,000 range.
The outlook is based on the behaviour of Strategy’s mNAV ratio, a metric that compares the company’s market value to the value of its BTC holdings. According to him, mNAV has fallen to 0.72, approaching the cycle low of 0.7 recorded on May 11, 2022, during the previous market downturn.
While the current mNAV level suggests deep pessimism in the market, Jiang cautioned that an mNAV bottom does not necessarily coincide with Bitcoin’s price bottom. In the previous cycle, Strategy’s mNAV hit its low when Bitcoin traded around $31,017.
However, BTC continued falling and reached its bear market low of $15,476 in November 2022, roughly six months later. Moreover, based on this historical pattern, Jiang argues that mNAV may serve as a leading indicator rather than a direct signal of Bitcoin’s final price floor.
He added that current market conditions, including the notable decoupling of Strategy’s STRC-related sentiment indicators, suggest mNAV is already trading within its lowest zone of this cycle.
A Four-Year Cycle Model Points to Late 2026
His forecast is built on a mathematical model that compares Bitcoin’s long-term market cycles to a bouncing ball, where each successive bounce becomes smaller as volatility declines. As Bitcoin’s market cap expands, price swings tend to moderate over time.
Jiang revealed that his recent trading strategy has involved reducing spot exposure and maintaining short positions. If his cycle thesis plays out, BTC could continue facing pressure through 2026 before entering its next major accumulation phase.
Is Bitcoin’s Price at Risk of a Steeper Downturn?
The largest asset, Bitcoin (BTC), is currently trading at $61,424, with its daily trading volume having surged by over 38.47% to the $42.98 billion mark. During the last 24 hours, the BTC market has experienced a liquidation of $411.91 million, as reported by the Coinglass data.
If the bearish phase intensifies, the BTC price could fall to the support at $61,320. Upon the downside correction gains more traction, the death cross might form, and send the price even lower. Assuming the current momentum shifts bullish, the price could climb to the resistance at $61,514. With the steady upside pressure, a golden cross would emerge and lead the price action to move up.
Both the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and signal lines are below the zero line, indicating that BTC is in a bearish trend. The sellers remain in control of the broader market, reflecting sustained downside pressure rather than a temporary pullback.
Besides, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42.37 suggests a mild bearish trend. It is below the neutral level and remains above the oversold zone, with selling pressure present but not strong. The momentum is balanced, and a clear trend has yet to strengthen.
