Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded to near $65,800 after an on-chain bottom signal flashed for the second time in 2026, the same setup that preceded a 24% rally earlier this year. Large holders added to their positions as the signal appeared, hinting they see the low as in.
The move pairs a rare metric with visible whale buying. Both point the same way, though weakening volume keeps the case from being one-sided.
A Bitcoin Bottom Signal Just Flashed?
The starting point is a Glassnode metric called the Seller Exhaustion Constant. It multiplies the share of Bitcoin supply in profit by 30-day price volatility to flag low-risk bottoms, and it was first developed by ARK Invest.
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History gives it weight. The metric peaked at 0.082 on February 12, when BTC traded near $66,248. Price then climbed to about $82,186 by May 10, a gain of roughly 24%.
That repeat is why the current setup matters, and the next layer shows who acted on it.
Whales Bought Into the Exact Signal
Large holders moved on the same cue. One of the biggest Bitcoin whale cohorts, holding between 100,000 and 1 million BTC, lifted its stash from about 693,600 BTC to 694,390 from June 11, the same day the signal fired.
Smaller whales followed. The cohort holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC grew its position from roughly 4.24 million to 4.25 million BTC starting June 13. Together the two groups added close to 11,000 BTC, worth around $700 million at current prices.
The timing is the point. Whales accumulated on the exact signal that historically preceded gains, so the metric and the largest holders agree. The price chart shows whether the structure backs them.
Bitcoin Price Levels to Watch as the Rebound Meets Resistance
BTC rebounded from its $59,100 low and crossed $64,694 on June 11, the trigger that aligned with the signal. Bitcoin price trades near $65,800, now testing overhead resistance.
The bullish case builds on the setup. A reclaim of the 20-day exponential moving average at $66,610, a trend gauge that smooths recent price, opens $68,155, the 0.382 Fibonacci level that measures the proportional pullback from the prior swing.
Clearing that targets $70,953. If the US-Iran deal keeps supporting risk and retail joins the whales, a move toward $73,750 and then the 200-day EMA at $78,668 could follow, with $82,805 as the stretch target, echoing the last run. That implies a possible 8% move and more if momentum builds. Right now, the overall buyer-specific volume is on the decline as retail might be needing some more confirmation.
The bearish case rests on participation. Buying volume has weakened since June 11 even as price rose, which shows whales are adding but retail has not joined.
Without that demand, BTC could stall at $66,610 and slip back toward the $64,694 level it just reclaimed. A daily close above $66,610 confirms strength, while rejection there keeps the rebound capped.
